Date: 6 months ago   Category: Science

Global disaster was inevitable


The international group of scientists from Austria, France, Great Britain, Germany and Switzerland has come to a conclusion that thawing of permafrost and emissions of carbon connected with it have reduced the issue budget of carbon dioxide almost to zero. As a result excess of admissible volumes of emissions of greenhouse gases which can lead to climatic disaster is inevitable. Article of scientists is published in the Nature Geoscience magazine. The issue budget of carbon dioxide is called the admissible amount of carbon dioxide who can be let out for a certain period not to exceed the level of global warming established by the end of this period. According to the Parisian agreement of 2015, growth of global average temperature has to be limited of 1,5 degrees Celsius for prevention of the catastrophic scenario of climate change. By the previous estimates of researchers to achieve these objectives with 50 percent probability, the budget shouldn't exceed 550 gigatons of CO2. At preservation of the current level of issue it will be exhausted approximately in six years. Scientists have estimated influence of the emissions of carbon dioxide and methane caused by thawing of permafrost on the issue budget. According to their conclusions, without taking note of a kriolitozona emission of 2320 gigatons of carbon dioxide will lead to excess of a limit in 1,5 degrees Celsius, and emission of 3230 gigatons — to excess of a limit in 2 degrees Celsius. Taking into account thawing of permafrost these indicators decrease by 30 and 60 gigatons respectively. At the same time the admissible issue budget is reduced even stronger — by 60 and 100 gigatons respectively. There are several scenarios of achievement of a limit. Some of them allow temporary excess of the established values with the subsequent reduction of average temperature. According to the Parisian agreement, growth of average temperature can reach 2,5 degrees Celsius, however then it is necessary to take measures for decrease in this value to 2 degrees Celsius. However at this scenario thawing of permafrost will lead to reduction of the issue budget by 16 percent. At excess of a limit by one degree the issue budget will decrease by 25 percent. For a limit in 1,5 degrees Celsius the issue budget is reduced by 10-100 percent. Thus, excess of limits is the most risky strategy, and in a number of scenarios at mankind the issue budget is almost completely exhausted. Now the scenario of excess of a limit, therefore, scientists conclude, the mankind has to be ready that it won't be possible to return to the safe level of warming is implemented. It is more than important news in Film of Day Telegram-channel. Subscribe!

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